Write a brief essay (no more than a page) explaining your results to a lay person.

I need one more question answered to this assignment:


3. Write a brief essay (no more than a page) explaining your results to a lay person.

If you can complete this within a couple of hours from this post, I will release more information that is essential to completing this essay I need. Thank you.

This This assignment is based on the case of trichloroethylene exposure in Woburn, MA. The case is the subject of a book by Jonathan Harr called A Civil Action, and a movie of the same name.

The assignment is a simplified version of Problem 7-5, Page 247 ff, in the book Should We Risk It?  Post any generic questions you have here, and post your assignment to your individual assignment folder. 

Two of the wells in the town of Woburn were contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE), an industrial solvent that I know some of you are familiar with in other contexts. Several of the children exposed to the water developed leukemia and sued the companies that operated facilities where the chemical was used. In this assignment, we will use Monte Carlo analysis to characterize the risk to the exposed children.

The three principal routes of exposure are:

· Water ingestion

· Inhalation of ambient air

· Inhalation of TCE that evaporates from shower water

Use the data in the table below to respond to the following..

1. Calculate the average daily dose (ADD) and risk for each route of exposure based on average values.

2. Do a run with Crystal Ball. Based on the results of the run, state the upper and lower 95% confidence limits for each of the risks. Determine the parameters that have the greatest influence on the results. Make sure you define the assumption for each uncertain parameter based on the data in the table prior to running Crystal Ball. . 

3. Write a brief essay (no more than a page) explaining your results to a lay person.

TCE concentration in water225ug/LUniform 183 – 267 ug/L
Water intake0.87L/dayNormal Mean: 0.87 L/day 95th percentile: 2 L/day
TCE concentration in ambient air0.86ug/m3Uniform 0.51 – 1.22 ug/m3
Breathing rate13.1m3/dayNormal Mean: 13.1 m3/day 95th percentile: 19.3 m3/day
TCE concentration in room during a shower1033ug/m3Uniform 689 – 1378 ug/m3
Time per shower10minutesNormal Mean: 10 minutes Std dev.: 5 minutes
Body Weight52kgNormal Mean: 52 kg Std dev.: 10 kg
Exposure duration10years 
Average lifetime70years 
Cancer potency for inhalation5.88E-6kg-day/ug 
Cancer potency for ingestion4.6E-5kg-day/ug 

.Note that the EPA has withdrawn its cancer potency values from IRIS. I took the numbers in the table from other literature.

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